1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2022	250380	Rio 1808	Current	14	9.18	0.00	3.25
			Estimated	500	7.71	5.98	3.21

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
The year is 1808 and the prince regent of Portugal, D. João VI, has just arrived in the capital of Brazil, with all the royal family, his court, employees and dozens of nobles and influential and wealthy people of Portuguese society. With Napoleon's rule throughout Europe, this was the only way the Portuguese kingdom could survive. Now in Brazil, D. João VI intends to continue the reign by distributing titles, improving the infrastructure of the Brazilian city and creating a new Rio de Janeiro. In Rio 1808 players take on the role of heads of important families in Rio who seek to be nominated with nobility titles by the Portuguese crown during the transfer of the capital of Portugal from Lisbon to the city of Rio de Janeiro. Players are expected to flatter royalty by offering various products through their best workers, gaining influence with the regent and other members of the royal family, as well as other important nobles of the period. During the game, players will send their workers to various parts of the city to buy certain goods, completing the wishes of royalty and also assisting in the construction of various buildings throughout the city, such as the national museum, the national library and the botanist. garden, all of them today memorable buildings in Rio. Players also have to perform tasks to influence the church and society ("the people"). They have to hire and teach new jobs to their workers, instructing them and making them more effective in carrying out the tasks. However, more efficient workers are also more expensive and require better wages. In each round, the players receive money, send their workers to the tasks and, at the end of the day, pay their wages. Increasing influence with the court also generates an increase in your income as the name of your family becomes more valued in commerce and more favored by the nobles. But each time you pick up some of your workers to increase their influence with royalty, they become more demanding with the presents, jealous of each other and making their task difficult. At the end of the game, the players will add their influence in every location, sum your money and check for some objectives. The player with most influence will receive the so dreamed title of nobility. HIGHLIGHTS OF THE GAME: - The game is about the Brazil colonial period and it's a eurogame with mostly common mechanics (worker placement, influence control, set collection) - The workers are dice that are not rolled (you have to upgrade the dice) - That are a "jealous" mechanic in the game that makes the nobles/royals change their desires - There's a "delay" mechanic in how you get resources - Rio 1808 is a medium to heavy weight game in terms of complexity —description from the designer

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/250380

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Rio 1808? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Rio 1808. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Rio 1808. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	250380	Rio 1808	1.00	0.00	9.18	3.21	14
1	2015	131449	Captains of Industry	0.92	5.87	7.06	3.78	547
2	2015	139236	California Gold	0.92	5.54	6.36	2.56	94
3	2017	174231	Badlands: Outpost of Humanity	0.91	5.57	6.78	2.75	148
4	2004	12962	Reef Encounter	0.90	6.72	7.14	3.68	5,032
5	2015	182619	M.U.L.E. The Board Game	0.87	5.72	6.59	2.64	474
6	2014	109276	Kanban: Driver's Edition	0.87	7.29	7.82	4.36	6,304
7	2000	554	La Città	0.87	6.63	7.03	3.28	5,153
8	2013	137237	Bremerhaven	0.86	5.76	6.55	3.11	584
9	1987	57	Schoko & Co.	0.85	5.72	6.66	2.92	416
10	2015	170225	DRCongo	0.85	5.70	6.97	3.59	265
11	2019	265188	Glen More II: Chronicles	0.84	7.37	7.98	3.05	5,637
12	2017	200890	Pixie Queen	0.84	6.09	7.17	3.14	1,027
13	2018	263763	Stworze International Edition	0.84	5.54	7.61	3.20	48
14	2017	231966	Stworze	0.84	5.51	5.86	3.07	352
15	2016	210101	Incorporated	0.83	5.65	7.40	3.94	164
16	2015	189218	曼荼羅 (Mandara)	0.83	5.52	6.95	3.00	33
17	2016	128721	Crisis	0.82	6.51	7.54	3.04	1,746
18	2006	25224	Hermagor	0.82	6.20	6.90	3.18	1,792
19	2011	105187	MIL (1049)	0.82	5.79	6.58	3.81	694
20	1989	167	Dicke Kartoffeln	0.82	5.55	6.19	3.43	159
21	2002	3828	Locomotive Werks	0.82	5.79	6.78	2.89	520
22	2020	294047	Superclub	0.81	5.64	7.90	2.33	152
23	2015	128011	Extra! Extra!	0.81	5.65	6.71	3.16	256
24	2009	39351	Automobile	0.81	6.89	7.33	3.52	5,548
25	2016	114784	Rhein: River Trade	0.81	5.56	6.28	3.60	143

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Rio 1808 while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	250380	Rio 1808	0.00	1.00	0.00	9.18	3.21	14
1	2014	109276	Kanban: Driver's Edition	6.33	0.87	7.29	7.82	4.36	6,304
2	2019	265188	Glen More II: Chronicles	6.22	0.84	7.37	7.98	3.05	5,637
3	2004	12962	Reef Encounter	6.03	0.90	6.72	7.14	3.68	5,032
4	2006	25613	Through the Ages: A Story of Civilization	5.99	0.78	7.66	7.89	4.17	18,509
5	2015	125153	The Gallerist	5.83	0.76	7.69	8.05	4.26	11,647
6	2000	554	La Città	5.74	0.87	6.63	7.03	3.28	5,153
7	2004	2651	Power Grid	5.70	0.74	7.73	7.84	3.26	59,685
8	2009	39351	Automobile	5.61	0.81	6.89	7.33	3.52	5,548
9	2013	144733	Russian Railroads	5.58	0.74	7.52	7.76	3.41	16,244
10	2012	110327	Lords of Waterdeep	5.53	0.73	7.62	7.75	2.46	49,784
11	2019	214880	City of the Big Shoulders	5.47	0.81	6.78	7.84	4.02	2,200
12	2000	555	The Princes of Florence	5.44	0.75	7.28	7.52	3.25	14,865
13	2013	144592	Bruxelles 1893	5.42	0.77	7.08	7.64	3.59	5,067
14	2015	131449	Captains of Industry	5.40	0.92	5.87	7.06	3.78	547
15	2016	128721	Crisis	5.37	0.82	6.51	7.54	3.04	1,746
16	2007	22545	Age of Empires III: The Age of Discovery	5.35	0.74	7.20	7.53	3.13	10,013
17	2007	30957	Tribune: Primus Inter Pares	5.24	0.78	6.73	7.22	2.87	4,515
18	2019	256730	Pipeline	5.23	0.75	6.97	7.66	3.89	3,920
19	2008	23094	Planet Steam	5.14	0.79	6.48	7.12	3.76	2,805
20	2017	200890	Pixie Queen	5.13	0.84	6.09	7.17	3.14	1,027
21	2014	131287	Panamax	5.11	0.76	6.74	7.31	3.75	3,771
22	2017	174231	Badlands: Outpost of Humanity	5.09	0.91	5.57	6.78	2.75	148
23	2015	139236	California Gold	5.09	0.92	5.54	6.36	2.56	94
24	2006	25224	Hermagor	5.09	0.82	6.20	6.90	3.18	1,792
25	2017	230085	Agra	5.05	0.78	6.51	7.35	4.35	2,197

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2022	250380	Rio 1808	Vem Pra Mesa Jogos	Anderson Butilheiro	Tiago Sousa	Economic	Admin: Upcoming Releases	Area Majority / Influence
						Napoleonic	Cities: Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)	Commodity Speculation
							Country: Brazil	Contracts
							Theme: Colonial	Delayed Purchase
								Income
								Set Collection
								Worker Placement with Dice Workers

Individual Game Analysis